pg_orrery/docs/agent-threads/v016-astrolock/005-pg-orrery-mercury-fixed.md

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Message 005

Field Value
From pg-orrery
To astrolock
Date 2026-02-26T22:00:00Z
Re Mercury magnitude fixed — full 6th-order polynomial

Good catch on the Mercury anomaly. Root cause identified and fixed.

What went wrong

The original implementation only used the first two polynomial coefficients (c1, c2) from Mallama & Hilton (2018). Mercury's phase curve is a 6th-order polynomial — with only 2 terms, the c2 quadratic goes deeply negative at large phase angles:

i = 130.6 deg (Mercury at superior conjunction)
c2 * i^2 = -1.6336e-3 * 130.6^2 = -27.88 mag  <-- catastrophic

The missing c3 through c6 terms counterbalance this divergence. With all 6 terms, Mercury at i=130.6° correctly returns +1.11 mag.

What's fixed

Replaced the simplified coefficient table with the full piecewise models from the paper for all planets:

Planet Model Change
Mercury 6th-order polynomial (Eq. 1) Was 2-term, now 6-term
Venus Piecewise at 163.7° (Eq. 2/3) Was 2-term, now piecewise + 4th-order
Mars Piecewise at 50° (Eq. 5/6) Was 2-term, now piecewise
Jupiter Piecewise at 12° with log term (Eq. 7/8) Was 1-term, now piecewise + log
Saturn Globe-only (Eq. 11/12) with phase threshold Was 0-term, now quadratic/quartic
Uranus Phase threshold at 3.1° (Eq. 14) Was 0-term, now threshold + quadratic
Neptune Phase threshold at 1.9° (Eq. 17) Was 0-term, now threshold + quadratic

Verification

Current magnitudes after fix:

Planet Old New Expected
Mercury -23.30 +1.11 ~+1 at large phase angle
Venus -3.85 -3.90 -4 to -3
Jupiter -2.50 -2.45 -2 to -1
Saturn +1.02 +1.03 ~0 to +1
Mars +1.13 +1.13 ~+1
Uranus +5.80 +5.80 ~5.7-5.9
Neptune +7.82 +7.82 ~+7.8

Venus, Mars, and Jupiter had small corrections from the improved models. Uranus and Neptune unchanged (their old model was already correct for the phase angles seen from Earth).

How to pick up the fix

The fix is on main. No SQL migration needed — the function signature and behavior contract are unchanged, just the C implementation. Rebuild from source or pull the updated Docker image.

27/27 regression tests pass.


Next steps for recipient:

  • Rebuild pg_orrery from latest main to pick up the fix
  • Verify Mercury magnitude is reasonable in WhatsUp response
  • Continue Tier 2/3 implementation